Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 65850.052484 69695.379164 73548.180868 77695.166991 82029.664547 86423.462910 91211.118811
2025-03-23 59722.027710 65602.762225 71668.698077 78383.890674 85600.197954 93112.534665 101514.845778
2025-03-30 55356.178033 62632.367776 70312.200657 79002.827579 88544.316406 98681.197021 110244.935580
2025-04-06 51663.317250 59940.391022 68847.836335 79114.544315 90588.410590 102983.455972 117352.301942
2025-04-13 48538.712770 57580.328517 67478.290365 79071.246018 92228.280229 106647.198588 123593.252053
2025-04-20 46680.174623 56469.854425 67348.625705 80269.716739 95130.629962 111619.060600 131225.927399
2025-04-27 45055.330240 55494.098779 67254.649525 81401.997718 97870.516675 116346.632457 138548.958004
2025-05-04 43299.697757 54250.421308 66749.102807 81965.392987 99878.896956 120184.746880 144824.046543
2025-05-11 41401.915613 52734.217256 65830.973507 81958.813876 101149.896443 123117.509645 150018.251891
2025-05-18 39794.488086 51482.928149 65151.329742 82164.709751 102612.928764 126232.970548 155403.139301
2025-05-25 38260.523117 50247.657639 64424.938327 82253.744708 103886.859530 129091.426809 160468.178259
2025-06-01 37274.191582 49636.045469 64409.677193 83163.937978 106118.334835 133072.095693 166869.990696
2025-06-08 35693.212464 48241.422478 63405.441912 82848.440436 106865.191625 135299.403541 171225.345715
2025-06-15 34965.279970 47891.225074 63667.928481 84077.225795 109493.627210 139804.516201 178358.464791
2025-06-22 34071.262639 47289.925526 63584.168828 84849.240569 111544.584680 143608.749812 184660.450039
2025-06-29 32945.516537 46345.381621 63028.568153 84994.568062 112792.040673 146418.504012 189751.325702
2025-07-06 31804.795259 45338.494359 62354.862565 84954.881888 113780.089558 148892.567671 194427.199840
2025-07-13 31306.845017 45155.672018 62720.024373 86226.471204 116414.565574 153410.534604 201652.307052
2025-07-20 30808.618135 44950.323898 63038.678897 87426.629755 118956.117719 157822.714005 208773.071587
2025-07-27 30086.090751 44416.484073 62905.790454 88023.643672 120717.406970 161258.909599 214690.449705
2025-08-03 29154.103528 43566.990203 62329.380869 88016.691048 121683.795544 163685.232043 219343.084411
2025-08-10 28357.671056 42876.734827 61940.328644 88234.837955 122926.373764 166455.649821 224437.325967
2025-08-17 27550.960603 42146.105153 61473.676659 88329.167918 123992.595445 168995.322136 229244.652315